All attention these days is focused on the political de-alignment that seems to be taking place in Ottawa. But it is an emerging political re-alignment in Canada’s provinces that will fundamentally reshape the country within the emerging global economy. It will shift power away from Ottawa and to the provinces. The emerging consensus in Queen’s Park, the views of the new government in British Columbia and the historical forces for greater provincial autonomy in Alberta and Quebec will align and successfully challenge Ottawa’s hegemony. 

First and foremost, we are witnessing a return of Ontario to its deep history of autonomy and resistance to federal domination. Indeed, supporters of classical federalism — that provinces and the federal government should be sovereign in areas of their own jurisdiction — owe a great deal to Oliver Mowat, premier of Ontario from 1872 to 1896. Mowat used every tool at his disposal — pure power politics, legislation, and the British Privy Council — to wrest control away from Ottawa. Both Mowat and his immediate successors were successful in thwarting Sir John A.’s vision of a virtually unitary state. 

The more recent and common view of “Ontario as Canada” grew out of a spirit of compliance that ruled Ontario for 40 years. The seeds were sown by Leslie Frost; they blossomed under Bill Davis, who sacrificed Ontario’s interests to Pierre Trudeau’s; and they reached their disastrous apex under David Peterson. 

Queen’s Park is returning to a spirit of independence and away from a spirit of compliance. Bob Rae’s “fair share” debate over unilateral cuts to Ontario transfer payments was the beginning of a new era. Mike Harris has increasingly tried to resurrect Mowat’s vision, doubtlessly influenced by Tom Courchene’s economic analysis of Ontario as a new North American Region State. Even more topically, journalist John Ibbitson’s new work Loyal No More traces Ontario’s rediscovery of its quest for a separate destiny. 

The most recent manifestation is Mike Harris’s recent statement that Ontario is going to do what is right on health care, no matter what the Ottawa-appointed Romanow Health Commission might say in 18 months. 

In British Columbia, the provincial Liberals will not take long to align with the calls for more provincial autonomy as they tap into the feeling of alienation from Ottawa that is nowhere stronger than in Lotusland. Further, taking on Ottawa’s mismanagement and disconnection is the most practical way of keeping old Reformers in the B.C. Liberal tent. 

Alberta has its own reasons to crank up the volume on its role in the federation — not least in order to ensure a leading role in any continental energy policy. (Substantial offshore oil and gas reserves off the East Coast may bring some Atlantic provinces into alignment on this issue, a refreshing change.) In addition, restive Alliance members may well turn their attention to the provincial scene and start urging Premier Ralph Klein to move forward on the Alberta Agenda in such policy areas as pensions, health care and taxes. 

The decentralist agenda will, of course, play well in Quebec. Despite Premier Bernard Landry’s bellicosity about sovereignty, senior players in the sovereignty movement, as well as the strategically important Action Democratique party, are increasingly promoting a confederal arrangement with the other provinces. While Alberta, Ontario and British Columbia may be reluctant to push the envelope this far, a decentralist strategy is likely to be much more popular in Quebec than dangling the prospect of another sovereignty referendum. 

This alignment will be successful because not even Jean Chretien can withstand a coalition that includes Ontario, never mind one that includes both Ontario and Quebec. With the addition of the big Western governments, this strategic alliance will represent provinces containing well over 80% of the population and a yet greater share of the country’s economic output. 

The treatment of provincial health reform bears out the difference this alignment is already beginning to make. Two years ago, Ottawa went ballistic when Alberta proposed to limit the growth of private health clinics within the publicly funded health system. Yet when the Ontario government talks about fully private hospitals, Ottawa melts into a much more soothing response. 

This coalition is likely to exert itself in three arenas in the next 12 months. First, all four provinces are likely to have their own health care plans outlined well in advance of the Romanow report — making its publication, as well as any subsequent federal role in health, largely superfluous. Second, the pressure for Ottawa to focus on economic issues through cuts in taxes rather than increases in “investment” will become much louder. Finally, the coalition will have little patience for boutique federal programs in provincial jurisdictions. This will ultimately lead to a rewriting of the rules surrounding the Social Union Agreement when that deal comes up for renewal early in 2002. 

As this coalition plays itself out, supporters for a more centralized vision of Canada will increasingly be found only in the elite corridors in Ottawa, among hard-core Liberal centralists in Quebec, in outposts in Atlantic Canada and the eastern half of the Prairies and, last but not least, among “old Canada” thinkers who are forever trying to redistribute wealth among provinces rather than export good policies to all parts of the country. 

These forces for centralization will not be enough to counter a united front of the four big provinces. This will ultimately mean the policies in all parts of Canada will better reflect local economies and local desires — and that cannot but lead to a stronger country.