Will there be a federal election before next spring? In a word, no.

Recent challenges for the Liberals, plus the selection of Erin O’Toole as the new Conservative leader, has ramped up speculation about a snap election. Liberals and Conservatives can both make cases for why an early vote is to their advantage (and, for what matter, why one would be too risky). But the real issue isn’t one of simple electoral strategy or partisan preferences. The timing of our next election will not be purely political. The COVID-19 pandemic, as much as any political calculus, will set the schedule. Buzz and speculation can’t change the reality on the ground: the virus is still with us, and will be for months (at least!). And this will mean some very specific things to any war room advisors pondering whether to go now or wait.