A Conservative by any other metric would spend so sweet.

A number of important conservative and other commentators have lamented Ontario’s departure from conservatism. Doug Ford, these folks argue, is not conservative.

A key clue to Ford’s lack of conservative bona fides, lies, apparently, in Ontario deficits, or more precisely his failure to balance the budget. As if the failure to move closer to a balanced budget is the critical sin.

But is it?

This argument focuses on cash flows while ignoring stocks. It points to taxes in minus expenses out as the critical measure of conservatism. But it ignores that — by another easy to calculate objective measure — Doug Ford is running the most conservative government in Canada.

Fifteen years ago I wrote an analysis of program spending across Canadian provinces. It showed that Ontario was 40 per cent more conservative than Alberta because Ontario delivered the same basket of government services for 40 per cent less per capita than Alberta. “McGuinty is 40 per cent more conservative than Stelmach” was a memorable headline.

Since then, Alberta has cleaned up its act. The last few years of NDP government under Rachel Notley and (mostly) the ultra-frugal government of Jason Kenney has significantly closed that 40 per cent gap down to seven per cent.

But it hasn’t eliminated it.

Ontario today delivers health care, education, social services and all the rest of government for less per citizen than any other Canadian province. According to a recent analysis by the Financial Accountability Office (FAO) of Ontario, the province spends $12,138 per capita on delivering government programs. This compares to a Canadian average of $15,389. (All figures are from 2022, the latest year that Statistics Canada compiled comparable data.) That is, Ontario is 27 per cent more conservative than the average Canadian province. Saskatchewan is the most profligate (yes, Scott Moe is the big spender) followed by Quebec (less of a surprise).

There is an important caveat. During the Mike Harris era, Ontario devolved significant chunks of social service spending to municipalities. Most other provinces did not follow suit. I don’t know whether the FAO adjusted for this devolution, but I did a separate analysis of consolidated provincial and municipal spending across provinces and that didn’t change any of the conclusions in this essay. In that analysis, too, Ontario delivers the same basket of services for the lowest cost, with Saskatchewan the least conservative and Quebec a close second.

And Ontario doesn’t just provide services for cheaper than other Canadian provinces, it also collects the least amount of revenue per person (taxes, non-tax revenue and federal transfers). That is mostly due to collecting, by far, the least amount of non-tax revenues of any Canadian province at $971 per resident. By comparison, Alberta collects well over $7,000 per resident via oil and gas royalties. Like Alberta and B.C., Ontario didn’t receive any federal Equalization payments in 2022. Curiously, the total amount per resident Ontario collects from the federal government is less than what Alberta and B.C. receive.

Meanwhile, the big spenders in Canada are Scott Moe in Saskatchewan, François Legault in Quebec and, to a lesser extent, Andrew Furey of Newfoundland and Labrador. Those three governments are also the big taxers, measured by total revenue per capita. Honourable mention should go to Alberta. Because even though Alberta collects the least amount of taxes per citizen, it is blowing the inheritance of future generations by spending oil and gas royalties today at an extraordinary pace.

Let that sink in for a moment.

That Ontario has been the smallest government with the lowest appetite for revenue does not mask a simple fact: Doug Ford has not made Ontario less conservative than his provincial counterparts. In simple mathematical terms, Doug Ford is not a big spender. By the same terms, he is not a high taxer.

Conservatism is obviously more than small government and low taxes. But by those critical conservative metrics, Doug Ford is the most conservative premier in Canada. And it’s not close.

Ken Boessenkool is a founding partner of Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips Make Better Policy and has advised politicians from Preston Manning to Stephen Harper to Christy Clark and a few more in between.