It may seem like an odd time to forecast a rebalancing of power between Ottawa and the provinces with the forces for centralization as strong as they are in Ottawa.
However, the current realignment of two provinces — Ontario and British Columbia — will force a rebalancing in favour of the provinces that Ottawa is powerless to stop.
There is a seismic shift currently taking place in Ontario — in Toronto’s Queen’s Park, not Ottawa’s Parliament Hill.
As chronicled in journalist John Ibbitson’s new book, Loyal No More, the Mike Harris government is shifting further and further away from the “Ontario is Canada” view and towards the “Ontario is Ontario” view.
We are, Ibbitson cogently argues, witnessing a return of Ontario to its deep history of autonomy and resistance to federal domination. This may seem odd to Albertans who think Toronto is just as politically distant as Ottawa. But, supporters of classical federalism — the view that provinces and the federal government should be sovereign in areas of their own jurisdiction — owe a great deal to Oliver Mowat, premier of Ontario from 1872 to 1896.
Mowat was Canada’s most successful champion of provincial rights. He used every tool at his disposal — pure power politics, legislation, and the British Privy Council — to wrest control away from Ottawa. During a time in which the dominion was still finding its footing, Mowat successfully shifted the balance of power from Ottawa to the provinces. In doing so, he reversed many of the early victories that his bitter rival, Sir John A. Macdonald had won against waffling provincialists during the Confederation debates.
Mowat set the stage for a long period where Ontario held pride of place over Canada in what was already then Canada’s largest and most dominant province.
The more recent and common view of “Ontario as Canada” grew out of a spirit of compliance that ruled Ontario for 40 years. It is a view that is not only derisively shared by many Canadians outside Ontario, it is also proving remarkably resilient within Canada’s largest province. The seeds for this view were sown by Ontario Premier Leslie Frost; they blossomed under Bill Davis, who sacrificed Ontario’s interests to Pierre Trudeau’s; and they reached their disastrous apex under David Peterson, who traded Ontario’s interests for just about anything.
Ibbitson’s central argument is that Queen’s Park is returning to a spirit of independence and away from a spirit of compliance.
Mike Harris is resurrecting Mowat’s vision, and increasingly views Ontario as a North American region state, in the words of the prominent economist Tom Courchene.
Where Ibbitson uses political history, Courchene uses economic analysis to argue that Ontario should pay much more attention to its own destiny — principally that Ontario’s North-South trading relationships were outstripping its East-West relationships.
Events in Lotusland are also playing in favour of a power shift between the provinces and Ottawa. You don’t have to scratch too far below the surface of the victorious B.C. Liberals to find Reform roots. In fact, B.C. Liberals resemble the federal variety only in the way James Bond resembles Austin Powers.
The B.C. Liberal election platform talks openly about the equality of citizens and provinces, about equitable distribution of federal dollars and equal voting rights for all Canadians (code for giving B.C. its rightful allotment of House of Commons seats). New B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell has made no secret of keeping these Reformers in the tent by being forceful in his dealings with Ottawa.
What does this all mean for Alberta?
Ralph Klein, now the senior statesmen among premiers, can face Ottawa with a pair of partners that not even Ottawa can push aside. And if you add in careful doses of Quebec, Ottawa is playing with a very weak hand.
This will play itself out in the coming months in important ways. First, Klein will get his place at the continental energy table — both Campbell and Harris have already lent support to this quest.
The next move should be to build a coalition among these provinces to push for strengthening the North American Free Trade Agreement’s provisions regarding natural resources — giving natural gas “secure supply” status, and protecting Alberta from any future energy-based tax raids by Ottawa.
Second, Ottawa’s Romanow commission on health care will be completed well after these provinces mark out their own strategy for health that will have little role for Ottawa.
The coalition will coalesce around the idea that health reform must be driven by the provinces, not according to dictates from Ottawa.
The health care report, by former Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow, will either toe this line, or be tossed aside — along with further federal meddling in provincial health plans.
Finally, the Social Union Accord — in which the provinces traded jurisdictional control for a few extra health dollars in 1999 — is up for its three-year renewal next February.
The new alignment, along with Quebec which never did sign the original accord (but got the money anyway), will insist on opting-out clauses and further restrictions on Ottawa’s ability to meddle. Failing that, they will join Quebec in not signing on for a second round.
A coalition of Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia, and sometimes Quebec, will mean a rebalancing of power in the areas of health care and energy trade.
Ottawa has always been able and willing to trade off the interests of Central Canada against the regions, of the Central Canadians in Ontario against Central Canadians in Quebec, and of region against region.
But a common front is emerging between Canada’s largest provinces that will mean stronger provinces and a weaker Ottawa. This will ultimately mean the policies in all parts of Canada will better reflect local economies and local desires — and that cannot help but lead to a stronger country.
Ken Boessenkool is one of six authors of The Alberta Agenda, a proposal urging Alberta to make greater use of its constitutional jurisdiction.