Ken Boessenkool|March 1, 2022

Without a credible climate plan, the prospect of a Conservative victory is slim

Conservatives for Clean Growth was set up to urge Conservatives to take advantage of the incredible economic opportunities Canada faces as the world moves to net zero. Opportunities in mining (like raw material to meet global demand for batteries), clean energy (like nuclear and natural gas to replace dirtier energy like coal), technology (like carbon capture, modular nuclear reactors, and present and future cleantech opportunities), and manufacturing (like electric cars). As co-chairs Lisa Raitt and Jim Dinning argue, these are reasons enough for the party of growth and opportunity to pursue a credible climate change policy.

Yet, if that’s not enough, there is also a raw political argument for the Conservative Party, and its leadership candidates, to present party members and eventually all Canadians with a credible climate plan to reach net zero. For the simple fact is that without a credible climate plan, the prospects for a Conservative electoral victory are seriously slimmed.

Even if there was a time when a Conservative rallying cry for lower taxes could defeat a Liberal rallying cry for a strong climate plan, that time is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. These days, if all Canadians hear from Conservatives on climate is policies they are skeptical of, they can be forgiven for believing that Conservatives are skeptical of climate change itself.

For example, a recent 5,000 respondent poll commissioned by Clean Prosperity and conducted by Conservative pollster Andrew Enns, Canadians ranked climate change above higher taxes when it came to issues of concern (both followed pandemic management and post-pandemic economic recovery). Fully three-quarters of Canadians support a policy of “moving to net zero,” with only 16 percent opposed (the rest didn’t know). About the same number of Canadians (15 percent) think we should do “less” about climate change.

Fifteen percent of Canadians do not a Conservative electoral coalition make.

Critical to any Conservative electoral coalition is the 905—the ridings forming a ring around Toronto. In an analysis of the 2019 election, voters who considered voting Conservative—but didn’t—put the environment and climate change as their top priorities. These were the voters who denied a Conservative return to government. Almost one-third of voters who didn’t rule out voting Conservative said a credible climate plan would have made them “more likely” to vote Conservative.

And such a plan would not have cost the Conservatives in the west. Rather, a “credible climate plan” would help Conservatives hold ridings in the west where the party won with small margins without creating any risk in ridings where the party won with large margins. In fact, support for a strong climate plan—even one that includes carbon taxes—jumps from 23 percent to 67 percent if western Canadian Conservative voters believe such a policy will help win enough seats in Ontario to form a national Conservative government.

In the face of this overwhelming evidence of the need for a credible climate plan, the Conservatives presented such a plan in the last election.

A poll conducted following the 2021 election makes it clear that Erin O’Toole’s climate plan (which independent analysis said was credible) was a net positive for the party in that campaign. Once again, among those who considered voting Conservative—but didn’t—almost three voters said the Conservatives credible climate plan made them “more likely” for every one potential voter who said “less likely” to vote Conservative. And only five percent of Conservative voters thought they should do “less” than what O’Toole presented in that campaign. Hardly a vote loser some said it was.

Now is the time for the Conservative party to build on this progress. The next election will (please God) be held in a post-COVID world (an issue that cost Conservatives in the last election). Presenting a credible climate plan will be a minimum requirement for the next leader of the Conservative Party to become prime minister.

This is why Conservatives for Clean Growth has assembled policy teams—made up of conservative policy minds, relevant energy and environmental experts, and climate policy people—to assist Conservative Party leadership candidates to develop a credible climate plan. A plan that can position Canada to take advantage of the economic and technological opportunities presented by the global move to net zero. A Conservative plan for growth and prosperity.

We look forward to working with all leadership campaigns to develop such a plan, which can then become a key element of a plan to elect a Conservative prime minister in the next federal election.